Sound And Fury Amounting to Very Littleon October 5th, 2012 at 3:43 pm
In the aftermath of the debate, the conventional wisdom had Mitt Romney winning the day. I’d like to offer a bit of unconventional wisdom. It doesn’t really matter that much.
Now I don’t disagree that Romney was better than Obama. He was. Romney wasn’t nearly as great as some pundits have expressed, but he was certainly better than the apparently flummoxed president. So why doesn’t it matter? The focus on the debates presume that voters will make their decisions based on the candidates performance. That increasingly does not look like it’s the case.
Most of the Rasmussen Polls show about 3% of the likely voters in the Presidential election as undecided. I think that is pretty accurate, but with polling data…who knows for sure. Maybe a more telling anecdotal case is something pollster Frank Luntz said on CBS news about his 25 person focus group of undecided voters he gathered to analyze the debate.
According to Luntz, he had to interview 1000 people to actually find 25 people who were truly undecided. While the left routinely skewers Luntz for being a GOP mouthpiece, I see no reason why he would be dishonest about the difficulties he had in finding truly undecided voters.
So if there are that few undecided voters, what difference will the debates actually have? Or let me put it this way to my friends who support Romney.
If Romney stinks in the next debate, are you changing your vote? Of course not. So what makes you think Obama supporters are going to be likely to switch?
If indeed the debates don’t matter, what does it mean for the election. The side that does the best job of turning out those likely voters is going to win. So if you really want Romney to be President, I would suggest getting involved with your local Victory center and doing the grassroots work necessary to get the GOP base out.
Obsessing over the daily ebb and flow of the campaign will do nothing but make your head hurt. And unless a candidate complete flubs up in the debate…it’s all just sound and fury.
Amounting to very little.