Predicting a Winneron November 5th, 2012 at 8:54 am
Update: Well I surely overestimated the wisdom of Americans..looks like the pollsters didn’t. Chip
I don’t trust Dick Morris. I find him to be smarmy and self-serving. But I do think Dick Morris is right about something. Romney is likely to win the key states of Virginia, Ohio and Florida. If that is the case, Romney will be the next president. Pollster’s are using invalid model of Democrat vs. Republican voting patterns, skewing the voting significantly towards Democrat turnout that mirrors what occurred in 2008.
If you model the turnout like elections from 2004, 2008 and 2010…and average the turnout…which should yield a more statistically valid model…Romney wins the key swing states. This would sync up with a ton of anecdotal evidence. I am predicting that many people will have their wish and Romney will win. But there are two major storm clouds on the horizon that may quickly dampen enthusiasm.
1. The left has sold their base the lie that the vote will be suppressed by Romney. So if Romney wins, liberals are going to want to sue, riot and cause unrest based on the lies told by the media. There could be millions of angry and disillusioned Obama supporters who have been convinced Romney stole the election. That is a recipe for ugliness.
2. Will Romney be what Romney supporters think he will be? Will he better than Obama? Well of course.
Romney isn’t a committed socialist.
But based on his history, I am doubtful he will be the Reaganesque figure many are hoping for. But time will tell. I am always leery of “conservative” politicians who are so eager to work with Democrats. When the last President Bush worked with Democrats, we ended up with No Child Left Behind, an attempt at amnesty for illegals and a Medicare Prescription B plan that is trillions of dollars in the red.
Based on Romney’s past, this kind of behavior appears to be likely to this observer. But I have been reassured by many local Republicans that Mitt will be different if he gets elected.
It is looking like Romney is going to get the chance to prove me wrong.